–Initial Claims Revised Up 3k To 342,000 In Oct 6 Week Vs 339K Previous
–Continuing Claims Level -29k To 3.252Mln In The October 6 Week
–Claims Data Is Being Distorted By Timing Of Claims
–State Data For October 6 Week Showed Claims Fell 4,797 Oct 6 Week

By Ian McKendry and Kevin Kastner

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment
benefits rose by 46,000 to 388,000 in the October 13 employment survey
week after falling sharply in the previous week, the Labor Department
reported Thursday.

A Labor Dept. analyst said that the claims data is being distorted
by an issue of the timing of claims and that the actual level of claims
being reported is about what has been expected.

In the October 6 week the analyst said that they had expected
California to report additional claims usually associated with a new
quarter. However, California reported those claims in the October 13
week instead.

The median estimate of economists surveyed by MNI was for 365,000,
an increase of 26,000 from the initially reported 339,000 level in the
October 6 week. That week’s claims level was revised Up 3,000 to
342,000.

The state data released for the October 6 week indicated
unadjusted initial claims increased in 49 states and declined in 4
states, with zero states unchanged. The District of Columbia, Puerto
Rico, and Virgin Islands are included in this data.

In the October 6 week, California was the only state that reported
a decline in claims over 1,000 with a drop of 4,979 in unadjusted
claims.

The current week’s level of initial claims was 3,000 higher than
the 385,000 level in the September 15 employment survey week.

A Labor Department analyst said that seasonal factors expected a
decrease of 3.9% in unadjusted claims in the October 13 week. Instead,
unadjusted claims rose 8.8% to a level of 359,048 in the current week.
Unadjusted claims were at a level of 357,562 in the comparable week a
year ago.

The initial claims seasonally adjusted 4-week moving average was
365,500 in the October 13 week, and increase of 750 from the previous
week.

Continuing claims came in at 3.252 million after seasonal
adjustment in the October 6 week, a drop 29,000 from the previous week.

Unadjusted continuing claims fell by 40,882 to 2,744,348 in the
week, and remains below the 3,133,644 level in the comparable week a
year ago.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate fell to
2.5% after holding at 2.6% since March. The seasonally adjusted
unemployment rate is still down from the 2.9% rate in the comparable
week a year earlier.

The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below
that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are
approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and
labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.

The Labor Department said that the level of unadjusted Emergency
Unemployment Compensation benefits claims fell by 7,279 in the
September 29 week, bringing that category total to 2,098,793.

Extended benefits claims rose by 59 to 35,245 in the September
29 week.

The extended benefits program pays claims after a person has
exhausted regular uenmployment benefits and the four tiers of Emergency
Unemployment Claims. The program provides benefits for an additional 13
weeks but some states can volunteer to pay extended benefits for an
additional 7 weeks for a total of 20 weeks.

The extended benefits program can be triggered if a state has an
unemployment rate above 8% and is more than 110% of that states
unemployment rate in one of the three previous years. New York is the
only state currently eligible for this program.

The Labor Department reported that a total of 5,001,985 persons
claimed unemployment benefits in the September 29 week, a decrease of
42,664 from the previous week and still well below the 6,694,493 persons
in the comparable week a year ago. These data are not seasonally
adjusted, and include regular state claims, federal employee claims, new
veterans claims, the EUC and extended benefits programs, state
additional benefits, and STC/Workshare claims.

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]