There is plenty of data coming from the US on Tuesday morning, but retail sale is the focus

  • Due at 1230GMT

Previews:

Barclays:

  • We forecast retail sales to have increased 0.2% m/m in July.
  • Manufacturers' reports suggest vehicle sales rose modestly in July and led us to look for a small fall at the retail level.
  • Elsewhere, gasoline prices indicate a modest boost to overall sales from gas station sales.
  • For sales excluding motor vehicles we forecast a 0.1% rise.
  • Excluding volatile items such as autos, gasoline stations, food services and building materials, we expect retail sales to be up 0.3% m/m.

HSBC:

  • We expect that the core measures of retail sales picked up solidly in July, supported by strong growth in online sales and restaurant spending.
  • However, we expect that both auto dealer sales and gasoline station sales declined.
  • We forecast total retail and food services sales rose 0.2%.
  • We forecast ex-autos sales rose 0.3%.
  • We estimate a 0.4% increase for sales ex-autos and gasoline and a 0.3% increase for the retail "control group".

RBC:

  • We look for all three key measures of retail sales (headline, ex autos and control) to advance 0.5% in July. This metric has been extremely volatile in recent months on a sequential basis, so we anticipate a decent rebound following negative reads in June.
  • But another thing that really stands out is the deceleration in y/y control retail sales in recent months (from 3.7% in March to 2.4% in June). This has been very inconsistent with the acceleration in aggregate wage growth (from 4.0% to 4.5% in that span).
  • With the savings rate having normalized closer to other fundamentals recently, we anticipate that retail sales growth will become more aligned with wage growth again. In other words, there is some upside risk to our current 2.4% call for real Q3 consumption.