Its Q2 CPI data from Australia today

I posted earlier:

ANZ and WPAC previews are here (from even earlier): Australian Q2 inflation data due this week - preview

The other big two now (bolding mine for emphasis):

Commonwealth Bank:

We expect the headline CPI to rise by 0.5% in the quarter after posting a 0.5% lift in QI.

  • On our forecasts, the annual rate of inflation would step up modestly, from 2.1% to 2.3%.
  • As a result, real wages growth (i.e. deflated by CPI) will turn a little more negative.

On balance, the risks to our call are to the downside given low wages growth. But the firmer retail data and record new car sales indicate that consumer demand may have improved over Q2

  • The local ABS data on employment and retail activity were definitely a lot firmer in recent months, as were the business surveys on activity and sentiment.

The RBA July Board Minutes also had a more upbeat tone when discussing those issues.

  • If the firmer activity translates into higher quarterly underlying inflation rates, then there may be a case to lift rates. But not till 2018.
  • In our view, the most likely scenario is that the RBA will wait until after the 2018 Q3 CPI before lifting the cash rate.
  • There are some headwinds coming over the horizon for many households. Mortgage rates for investors have been rising for the last few months and the large rises coming in electricity and gas prices will crimp consumer confidence and discretionary spending.

NAB:

The CPI is expected to be close to both last quarter's year-to readings and also within close sight of the RBA's May Statement on Monetary Policy forecasts.

  • NAB estimates headline inflation of 0.4%/2.1%, the same as market expectations, with core inflation expected to print at 0.5% q/q/1.6% y/y, again right in line with the consensus and the RBA's May forecast of 1.75%.