Vote to take place soon, or will it be called off
Republican Senators hoped to vote at about 2:15 pm ET (1815 GMT) but with politicians being politicians, that looks like it will be delayed.
With John McCain returning to vote, the Republicans can afford two votes against the bill from their own party. If a third vote goes against them, the bill won't pass the procedural hurdle and it will be back to the drawing board.
The way I see it, the risks are skewed heavily against the dollar. If it actually goes to a vote, you would have to assume that Republican leaders know they will win. It really should be 90% priced in (more on that later).
If it fails, that's when it could get ugly for the dollar. I could easily see the euro back over 1.1700 and making a push to break the key 1.1714 level. Risk trades could also reverse and send the stock market lower. I think it could get ugly because it truly puts the Republican agenda at risk.
What's more likely than the vote failing is that it doesn't even make it to the floor. Mitch McConnell is scheduled to speak shortly and he could call it off. Again, that would hurt the dollar.
Ok, back to what's priced in. I wouldn't be surprised to see the market cheer a passage. Stocks are already on fire and the US dollar could use a relief rally. Ultimately, the market is made up of traders and betting against Congress has paid time-and-time again.
So on net, start with the idea that passing the vote is good for the dollar and a failure is much worse.
Watch the vote and McConnell's statement live.
