Canadians are angry.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals are getting decimated in polls after 10 years of leadership and a runaway affordability crisis.
Here are a few charts that illustrate why:
1) Immigration levels
Even 2-3 years ago, I would have never believed that Canadians would turn against immigration as much as they have but it's real and it's intense and it's because pumping the population by 3% a year has broken the country's infrastructure and housing markets.
2) There's only one sector that's growing: The public sector
Today is budget day and would be a good time to trim the public sector. Is that going to happen? Not a chance.
3) Housing costs
Today's Canadian CPI report showed that all the inflation in the country is from rents and rising mortgage rates. The dream of ever owning a house is dead for many -- perhaps the majority -- of Canadians under 30 and that cohort has shifted to the right in ways that few western democracies have seen in generations.
Let me tell you, that chart doesn't even begin to underscore how bad it is in many parts of the country. Urban baby boomers are living large on $1.5-$2m homes they bought for $50,000 and they're not downsizing. A very modest starter home in Canada costs +$600k in the places where the vast majority of the country lives and there is nothing resembling a booming homebuilding industry anywhere.
So what's coming?
Today is budget day and the plan is to tax the rich and corporations while adding $40 billion in new spending. Radio Canada reports that those with incomes above $300,000 are getting the bill while it's not clear how much more corporations will have to pay. Oil companies could also be facing a windfall tax.
Trudeau is promising to more than double (if not triple) the pace of annual home building but few believe it's possible given the lack of construction capacity in the country. What's more, given the pace of immigration, that still probably won't be enough with CIBC estimating that the country would need to nearly quadruple the pace of home building.
The budget is expected at 4 pm ET.
