Forex technical analysis: USDCAD making new session highs

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdcad

Crude oil is a bit lower today

The USDCAD is making new session highs and approaches the 1.2700 natural resistance level.   A topside trend line on the hourly chart cuts across at 1.27116. Other targets comes in at 1.2720 (swing low area from Thursday/Friday), then 1.2747 (38.2% and high from Friday) and the 100 hour MA at 1.2757 (and moving lower). 

In the move higher today, the price has moved back above the swing low from June 2016 at 1.2654 and 1.2676 respectively.  Those levels are now close support. Stay above and we could see more of a corrective move higher in the USDCAD.  

Picking a bottom in the USDCAD has been a difficult and often futile endeavor of late.  There have been pauses and small corrective moves, but corrections have been modest. 

However, at some point there will be a more meaningful corrective move when sellers take profit and buyers lean often look to lean against a support level. Failing below the June 2016 low and failing and moving above last Wednesday's low, could be a bottom, if they now hold support.  With the 100 hour MA a bit of a ways away at 1.2757, the reward can be worth the risk.  However, it would likely require a change of the fundamental story line that has dominated of late with BOC tightening and some slow down in the US tightening cycle.  

Crude oil prices are down -$0.43. That may also be contributing to a more bullish bias in the USDCAD (weaker CAD).