Price has stepped lower over the last 10 daya

The RBNZ will release their latest statement in the new trading day. No change is expected. However, what the statement says and the comments from RBNZs Wheeler will be instrumental for the trading bias going forward. The last statement (May 11) said that monetary policy "will remain accomodative for a considerable period" and that "'longer-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored at around 2 percent.".

They also said that "The trade-weighted exchange rate has fallen by around 5 percent since February, partly in response to global developments and reduced interest rate differentials. This is encouraging and, if sustained, will help to rebalance the growth outlook towards the tradables sector."

The NZDUSD has since May 11th moved from 0.6817 to a high of 0.7757 and the current 0.7331 level. That word "sustained" as to the currency, has not been "sustained". The NZD has gotten much stronger which is a drag for growth (and keeps inflation lower too). The AUDNZD and the EURNZD are fairing better than the NZDUSD, but they are still little changed since May 11th.

Technically, the NZDUSD peaked t 0.7557 on July 27th. The move to the high, took the price above the 50% of the move down from the 2014 high to the the 2015 lows at 0.7480. That break was too ambitious (or so it seems).

When the price closed back below that level on August 1st, the buyers turned back to sellers. The price has closed lower 5 of the last 6 days (today if it closes below 0.7327 it will be 6 of 7 - the price trades at that level right now). The pair still remains above the 38.2% of the move up from the May low (low for 2017). That comes in at 0.7274 and will be a target on more dovish comments for the NZD (see daily chart below). A move below that level and the July 18 low at 0.7260 and then swing low from July 11 at 0.7201 will be targeted.

Drilling to the hourly chart, shows the upside level that would turn the more bearish bias seen over the last 10 days, to more bullish.

Yesterday, the price of the pair found support buyers against the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. That is until the MA was broken and the price ran lower. That MA come in at 0.73544. A move above that MA line will be step one for a more bullish bias.

Above that and the trailing 100 hour MA (blue line at 0.7373 currently) will be eyed. Looking back to August 1st,, the more bearish bias started on the break of the 100 hour MA. It was retested on a correction on August 3rd before tumble lower.

With the recent market reaction near the MA line, I would expect a bullish run to find sellers leaning on a test - with stops on a move back above the MA level. The 50% of the move up from the July low at 0.73794 would be a smart stop on sales in that area.

Summary: No change expected. Currency is a drag. Technicals are going in more bearish. What will Wheeler and company say?

The decision will be released at 5 PM ET/2100 GMT. The Wheeler news conference will follow at 6 PM/2200 GMT.