Seasonal notes for September
August was a great month for seasonal trades but there aren't many reliable patterns in September, especially in foreign exchange.
- Natural gas is one of the typical winners in September, with an average gain of nearly 10% since the start of the century. However that's skewed by a massive 62% gain in 2009 so the trend isn't quite as strong as it seems.
- September is a typically weak month for the Japanese Nikkei 225. It's the second worst month on the calendar since 2000, averaging a 1.15% decline. That doesn't translate into anything notable for USD/JPY, which is basically flat during September over the long haul, but it has had a small negative bias lately.
- Oil is a genuine seasonal loser in September. It's the second-worst month over the past decade and third-worst since 2000. The average decline is 3.44% in the past decade.
- There is a slight negative bias in the Dollar Index in September
- Sept is a decent month for the euro, with an average gain of 0.53% since 2000, the third-best month
Overall, September is a heavy news month as central bankers and politicians get back to work after the holidays so it makes sense that would be a bigger driver than seasonals. We will just have to wait for the headlines.
