The drop in the euro to the lowest since Jan 17 is sign of trouble

EUR/USD breaks the February lows

It's never a good sign when something closes on the lows. That's especially true when it comes at the end of the month.

So while today's euro selling may be related to month-end flows, the technical picture is poor.

On the daily chart, the break of the Feb low signals a double-top at 1.25 with a potential slide to 1.19 in the cards.

The major upcoming worry is the Italian election on March 4. Some kind of hung parliament is likely with the 5-Star Movement holding the most seats but no party or natural coalition with enough support for a majority.

Here is a primer.