Technical analysis and earnings expectations for Coursera (COUR) stock ahead of earnings release on April 29, 2024

As Coursera (COUR) prepares to release its earnings tonight, investors and traders with an eye on high-volatility stocks are particularly attentive. Here's an in-depth look at what to expect and some opinions and insights from Itai Levitan at ForexLive.com.

COUR stock analysis video

Key points for traders and investors interested in COUR stock, especially before its earnings but also later

  • High implied volatility: COUR's options market suggests an implied volatility of 13.5%, indicating a potential price movement of about 13.5% around the earnings announcement. This does not predict the direction of the move but signifies substantial expected volatility.

  • Technical analysis indicators:

    • Volume profile: The stock recently closed below a significant volume profile level (the red line), which is typically a bearish indicator. However, nearby support is identified at around $11.45, suggesting potential buying interest if the price dips to this level.
    • Relative strength index (RSI): COUR has shown oversold signals on the RSI on several occasions, with recent readings around 27.5 on the weekly charts and an extreme low of 16 on a 12-hour chart. These levels often precede potential reversals.

  • Recent trading patterns: Observations from extended trading hours show extreme overselling, which might be a bullish indicator if coupled with other positive signals. However, traders should be wary of potential fake outs.

  • Earnings history context: Previous earnings have shown significant moves, with the stock historically recovering well if bought before earnings. This context might suggest a potential rebound in the current cycle.

  • Options market insights: The current price for a straddle suggests a 13.5% move. Historically, actual moves tend to be about two-thirds of the expected move, but it's crucial to prepare for potential outcomes beyond this range.

  • Risk management strategies:

    • Position sizing: Mitigate risk by adjusting the position size according to the expected volatility.
    • Strategic entry points: Consider entering at or near the value area low (around $10.17) if the price drops to this level, as this may attract additional buyers and LATER provide a better average exit point in the event of a downturn.

  • Correlation with broader markets: Watch for COUR's performance relative to major indices like the S&P and NASDAQ, especially looking for signs of relative strength or weakness.

  • Critical levels to watch:

    • Point of control (POC): Currently at $13.17, this level could act as a pivot point for price action.
    • Potential for rebound: With the stock potentially forming a higher low pattern, there is a chance for a rebound, targeting the value area high at above $21 if bullish momentum continues.

Conclusion and trading strategy:

So, in my opinion and for my money, COUR stock appears to be gearing up for a potentially volatile post-earnings movement. Traders should use caution, trade at their own risk, and consider the high volatility and potential for significant price movements when planning their strategies. Always incorporate robust risk management techniques, especially in the high-stakes environment of earnings trades.

Note from the author: This article was crafted with the assistance of AI technology, combining my opinion and insights with advanced analytics to provide you with a detailed examination of Coursera (COUR) stock ahead of its earnings release. This collaboration aims to deliver a nuanced and comprehensive analysis to aid in your own further research and investing and trading decisions.