- Current policy "not quite" in restrictive territory, needs to be over 5% at least
- Fed wants to 'guarantee' inflation will be on a steady path back to target and not waver on that
- Wants to err on the tighter side to allow disinflationary process to take hold
- Last half of 2022 surprised to the upside on jobs and GDP
- Global economic factors have improved with easing recession risks in Europe and China moving towards reopening. But that could fuel inflation
- Core inflation hasn't moderated as much as markets suggest
- Prospects for a soft landing "have improved markedly"
- Suggests a 50 bps at the upcoming meeting is appropriate
These comments read exactly like a central bank that's going to stay too tight.
The market is pricing in a 91% chance of a 25 bps hike so that comment about 50 bps is an outlier. But it's Bullard and he's not a voter so I doubt the market puts much stock into his view.