ECB Knot
ECB Knot

ECBs Knot is speaking and says:

  • headline inflation appears to have peaked
  • policy rates have socially been brought into neutral range
  • Keeping current pace of hikes into May could well be needed if underlying inflation does not materially abate
  • Once we see a clear, decisive turn in underlying inflation dynamics, I expect ECB to move to smaller steps
  • Sharp decrease in energy prices could bring down headline inflation faster than projected by ECB
  • Slowdown in growth seems even more shallow, short lived than expected.
  • Sees no recession in winter

The EURUSD trade between a swing area between 1.0710 and 1.07243 and near the session lows for the day. A break below would have traders looking toward 1.06909 which is the 61.8% retracement of the 2023 trading range (see posts here). For a technical view of the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCAD at the start of the US session, CLICK HERE.