- Prior rate was 4.25%-4.50%
- Market pricing suggested a 96% chance of a 25 bps hike
- Repeats that "recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production and that jobs gains have been robust"
- Statement says "ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate"
- Unanimous vote
- Says "Inflation has eased somewhat but remains elevated." in a change from "Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures."
- Prior "In determining the pace of future increases in the target range" is now "In determining the extent of future increases in the target range"
- Full text
US 2-year yields were trading at 4.71% ahead of the FOMC and USD/JPY was trading at 129.35.
The kneejerk reaction in the market is moderately hawkish, with the dollar rising. The Fed is continuing to pledge 'increases' (plural) in rate hikes, which would get the Fed funds rate above 5% versus the 4.91% priced into the market.
The March meeting is priced in at 85% with the remainder at no change. There's nothing in the statement to indicate a halt in rate hikes or any kind of change in stance however, the change from 'pace' to 'extent' indicates something a tad less hawkish and that might be enough for the market.
We will have to wait for more clarity from Powell at the bottom of the hour.
Here's the redline:
