Bullard bull
  • Appropriate that rates reach range of 4.50-4.75% by year's end with further hikes being 'data dependent'

Previously, Bullard was talking about a Q1 peak of around 4.5% but now he's talking about 4.50-4.75% by year end. Rates are at 3.00-3.25% currently so that's 75-75 rather than 75-50 as most are anticipating.

So this is a step in the hawkish direction but he's a hawk so it's not necessarily indicative of a shift from the core of the FOMC, but it's a start.

At the same time, he's not talking about boosting the terminal rate so I'm not sure how much shifting around 25 bps from February to December matters.

  • Current inversion of the yield curve a 'nominal inversion' involving expected inflation , not an indicator of recession risk

The hubris.