I will continue to pin that on the bond market for the most part. 10-year Treasury yields are holding right at the 200-day moving average, now seen closer to 4.37%. The low yesterday touched 4.31% in the handover from Asia to Europe trading.
The fact that bond sellers are hanging in there is arguably keeping broader markets at bay too. The dollar managed to find some footing while stocks also retreated slightly.
Given the state of play, that is making for a more pensive mood as we look to the last day of trading this week.
We've moved from pricing in one rate cut by the Fed to two now. There's an argument to be made that it will be extremely tough to get to three for this year, so that might be placing an overcast on the risk optimism following the US CPI data on Wednesday.
From here, it will be quite a wait until the FOMC meeting minutes next week. So, traders will be left to their own devices for the most part in figuring things out in the meantime.
But if anything else, do keep an eye out on the bond market chart as noted above.
