Harker Jackson Hole

It's interesting that he's talking about a 'methodic' move and that's in contrast to Bullard who wants to front load.

  • If there is a recession it would be shallow in my view
  • We will do what it takes to get inflation under control
  • Restrictive is clearly above 3%, how much more than that we'll have to see
  • I'm not in the camp that unemployment needs to rise to 5% to get inflation under control

We heard from Harker yesterday as well. I don't see anything to move the market here but 75 bps odds for Sept continue to tick down and it's right at 50/50 now.