- Expects GDP growth of 1% or 1.5% for the year
- We have a path forward to bring inflation down
- There are some downside risks from abroad
- Interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy are slowing, like housing
- Economy is strong, financial conditions have tightened
- Expects economy to slow to a point where unemployment rises to 4% but it's highly uncertain
- My baseline forecast is that we need to get to moderately restrictive territory next year
- It's reasonable to get to 3.5-4% Fed funds rate
- At our next meeting, 50 or 75 bps will be the debate
- I'm not seeing any sign of a taper tantrum, the bond market is functioning. Watching very closely
Right now the Fed funds curve peaks at 3.60% in March of 2023. There's nothing from this interview that changes the outlook.