- Inflationary pressures have broad partly because of wages
- I am expecting this year inflation will be high with core PCE in 4% to 5%
- next year expect inflation to be under 3% perhaps 2.5%
- we expect a lot of things to improve like supply chains
- Powell's Jackson Hole speech sounded like he was largely reminding people of what Fed had already been saying
- it looks like it will take at least 2 years to work out chip supply chain issues
- we don't want to take the necessary actions against the economy, but need to take actions necessary to get inflation back down
- inflation is higher than we thought in June
- expects a terminal rate of 4% next year
- that's a forceful path of rate hikes
- we could very well do 75 basis points in September
- my mind is not made up on September. We do need to increase rates
- optimistic we will be able to keep unemployment to 4.5% by the time we are done
- there's a decent chance of avoiding a recession but have to be nervous that something might break
- expects rates to be 3.25% to 3.5% by year-end
- worry a little bit that increasing rates to quickly might take data dependence off the table
I am not sure if the inflation for 2023 is core or headline?