This comes from the Philadelphia Fed's quarterly reassessment of payrolls. Its “early benchmark revision of state payroll employment“.
If you want to stop reading here, the kicker is that US payrolls have been overstated by at least 1 million, if not more.
If you want more.
- Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2022 were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES).
- ... Our estimates incorporate more comprehensive, accurate job estimates released by the BLS as part of its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program to augment the sample data from the BLS’s CES that are issued monthly on a timely basis. All percentage change calculations are expressed as annualized rates.
- In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by the sum of the states; the U.S. CES estimated net growth of 1,047,000 jobs for the period.
Underlining is mine.
Link is here for more: Early Benchmark Revisions of State Payroll Employment
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If the revisions are accepted they should act as a lessening of rate hike pressures (fewer jobs, less demand, less inflationary pressure) at the margin.
"Get me Philadelphia on the line, any line!"