I posted a little earlier on the view from a chap at UBS on gold: UBS sees 'short term pain' for gold

This now via Bloomberg:

The outlook for gold could be stronger now than it has been for several months

1. US rate hikes:

  • Chart gold against U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and it looks distinctly like the metal tends to sell the rumor of rate rises, and buy the fact. Every time yields have peaked north of 2.5 percent over the past five years, gold has promptly rallied. Economists predict that yield barrier should be broken some time in the first quarter of 2018.

2. Seasonality

  • January, February, July and August ... on average the best months to buy gold over the previous 10 years

3. Global economy may be facing tougher times ahead

  • Citi index of positive economic surprises for major economies is at unusually high levels ... Expectations eventually catch up to a run of positive surprises, leading to disappointment

4. the barbarous relic may trump bitcoin

  • If we see "a catastrophe in the cryptocurrency market," ... many of the fiat-money brigade who've pumped up the value of digital currencies will switch quickly from bitcoin, to cash, to their perceived safe haven of gold