Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 3 November 2015

  • Comparing the RBA October and November statements
  • Poll time ... which of these alternative headlines is best?
  • Reserve Bank of Australia NO CHANGE to cash rate
  • Here's how cash is smuggled out of China, but that's about to change
  • Morgan Stanley 'trade of the week' is to sell EUR/JPY
  • China NDRC says 7% growth a target, not a must-hit goal
  • Six Ways to Gauge How Fast China's Economy Is Actually Growing
  • Oil: TransCanada asks U.S. to suspend review of Keystone XL oil pipeline
  • PBOC sets yuan reference rate for today at 6.3310
  • French President Hollande says Chinese economic growth remains healthy
  • Heads up for NZD traders- dairy auction today in London time
  • New Zealand - ANZ Commodity Price index for October: +6.9% m/m (prior +5.5%)
  • Barclays technical analysis: "price action in EURUSD signals a breather"
  • NZ data - QV House Prices for October: +14% y/y (prior +12.6%)
  • Australia data - ANZ Roy Morgan weekly Consumer Sentiment 115.2 (prior 113.4)
  • More on Japan GDP forecasts - estimates show a recession
  • Nikkei reports researchers forecast negative Japan GDP in September

A holiday in Japan today (Culture Day) and a semi-holiday in Australia (big horse race) kept liquidity thinner than normal today, but the absence of much to surprise the markets kept ranges in the forex subdued.

USD/JPY ticked a little higher in the Tokyo morning only to reverse ahead of 120.90 and lose 20 or so points (did I mention ranges were subdued?).

EUR, CHF, GBP were all quiet against the USD, with a flurry of activity just on 5pm NY time in USD/CHF the only item of note, but that remained a bit of a mystery.

AUD and NZd, though, were both more active. They moved higher in morning Asian trade, with the NZD/USD topping out above 0.6770 (it tried to get through three twice before dropping back) and moving back down to be around mid-range as I update.

AUD/USD maintained its strength though right through until just before the big focus for the session, the Reserve Bank of Australia decision. It whipped on the decision 9it started lower a few seconds beforehand actually), with 0.7120 the low i saw (others may have seen it lower) and just above 0.7200 the high before settling more or less unchanged for a few minutes and then gathering pace higher again to be straddling 0.7200 as I update (after a high around 0.7212 ... and again, different venues will be reporting different levels, which is the nature of an OTC market, especially at a time of high volatility).

Oh, the RBA left rates unchanged. The accompanying statement seemed quite mixed to me. No, on balance it seems a touch more hawkish. Stevens did recognise there was scope to ease further (its hard to say anything else with inflation dropping through the bottom end of the target band and employment growth not setting the world on fire) but sounding a little more positive on prospects for the Australian economy.

Regional equities:

  • Shanghai +0.02%
  • Nikkei - Japan closed for Culture Day holiday
  • HK +1.37%
  • ASX +1.29%

Still to come:

  • Heads up for NZD traders- dairy auction today in London time