Forex news for Asia trading Monday 4 May 2020
- S&P affirms New Zealand's AA Ratings with a positive outlook
- China's People's Daily - air passengers to require a negative test
- New Zealand Prime Minister Ardern invited to Australian National Cabinet tomorrow (why this is a NZD positive)
- Australia - " Business Indicators, Business Impacts of COVID-19, April 2020"
- Australia Building Approvals for March: -4.0% m/m (expected -15.0%)
- Australia ANZ job advertisements survey for April: -53.1% m/m (prior -10.3%)
- FX options for expiry at the 10am NY cut on Monday 04 May 2020
- Australia private inflation survey for April: 1.2% y/y (prior 1.5%)
- Goldman Sachs says RBNZ negative rates are not a done deal (but here is why it might)
- Trump says that if China does not buy US goods the US will end the trade deal
- South Korean April manufacturing PMI drops to 41.6 (prior 44.2)
- US stock index futures extend their decline as Trump speaks
- US President Trump says expects 75,000 to 100,000 coronavirus deaths in the US
- UBS see the S&P500 higher by the end of the year
- Technical analysis of AUD/NZD - suggests short
- Coronavirus lockdown - Jordan has now lifted all restrictions on economic activity
- Goldman Sachs on oil - see a 3 stage recovery for prices
- Leaked US security report blames China concealing the severity of the coronavirus outbreak
- UK to start US trade talks this week with Trump
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 4 May 2020
- Coronavirus - Japan's PM Abe flags an extension of the state of emergency to May 31
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices -
- Texas won't vote to proration oil production
- Warren Buffett: If you print bonds in your own currency, what happens to the currency can be a question
- US Secretary of State says 'enormous evidence' exists that COVID-19 spread from Wuhan lab
- North and South Korea - shots fired between the two in the Demilitarised Zone
- May forex seasonals: The mighty dollar
A weaker day for 'risk' in Asia to open the week with rising US/China tensions over the weekend the main catalyst. US Secretary of State Pompeo continued Trump's war of words against China on the virus outbreak and Trump himself weighed in further in a Fox broadcast event Sunday evening US time.
US equity index futures opened lower for the new week and continued to lose ground. In the forex space AUD was a big loser in tune with the dominant theme for the session, as was the NZD. Broad USD strength played out also, pushing currencies lower elsewhere also. As US/China tension ratcheted higher the offshore yuan was another big loser. USD/CNH hit a 6 week high:
I have highlighted in bold the more pertinent of the weekend and Monday headlines above. Note also the South/North Korea exchange of gunfire and Buffet's weekend remarks (he is holding huge cash reserves as he has bailed out of airlines and is not currently spotting value in stocks more widely).
Data was poor from South Korea (PMI plunged) and Australia (jobs ads halved in a month, although building approvals data was not as bad as expected - albeit the data was collected mainly prior to the impact of the virus outbreak).
Coronavirus-related news was mixed, with easings evident in some countries. Japan is an exception, it appears the state of emergency will be extended (its due to expire on Wednesday) to May 31.
Japanese markets were closed for a holiday (they reopen on Thursday this week). China was also out on a holiday.