It's a battle of models vs rolling tally right now

The market is torn

To me, following the running tally is insane. It's skewed heavily by which districts have reported and which haven't. But there's a lot of confusion right now and ultimately, the final tally is the only thing that matters.

The models, however, are showing Leave is in the lead. I would almost call it a decisive lead.

Now, I hate economic models so I'm not sure I should trust voting models. That said, it's a better guide than the rolling tally.

Cable back up at 1.44 looks like a market in denial but the numbers are coming in very fast. For instance, St Albans and Richmond both just came in strong for Remain.