What normally makes non-farm payrolls such a market mover is that it’s nearly a real-time data point, the jobs numbers are out a few days after the month ends.
This time, we’re getting September data more than three weeks after the start of the month. The market already has a solid sense of how the economy was doing in September (I’d describe it as ‘muddling’) so it’s not going to be a big mover.
I wrote about RBS strategy and I see that Citi is saying the opposite. They say selling USD is a risky trade because an improving economy could spark some hawkish Fed rhetoric.