Opinion on what to expect from the central banker symposium in Jackson Hole (starts Thursday, Yellen and Draghi speak on Friday) is coming in thick and fast.
The story so far ….
Has everyone given up on Yellen?
CitiFX on what to watch for in the FOMC Minutes and the Jackson Hole symposium
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And, more various bits and pieces from overnight:
More from Citi:
- Expects Yellen’s message will be a dovish one
- The”question is whether Yellen can be more dovish than what is now priced in, not whether she will be dovish on the Richter scale of dovishness.”
- the surpise will be if she is more dovish than expected – this would mean she would “argue that the natural unemployment rate is less than 5.25-5.5%, or advocate for a temporary overshoot of the inflation target”
- Don’t expect there will be of much significance from Yellen’s comments
- “There is no time frame for the lift-off heading into this year’s symposium, and we do not expect that there will be a time frame for the lift-off after this symposium. Nor will there be until the labor market dashboard indicates that there has been a more significant reduction in labor market slack.”
BMO:
- Yellen “is likely to strongly defend the “significant” slack case” at Jackson Hole on Friday
- Yellen “is among a core group of policymakers that want to see clear evidence that 1) the economy is close to full employment, 2) growth will be sustained at a solid pace, and 3) wage/price pressures are emerging before opting to tighten.”
Credit Suisse:
- Says Yellen is constrained by geopolitical fragility & the softness in the European economy – so don’t expect anything other than dovishness from her
