Preview of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting today, 2 December 2014. The announcement is scheduled for 0330GMT.
Well, to make a long story short, its Groundhog RBA day.
There is nearly zero chance of any rate move (currently at 2.5%) from the RBA today, and its likley the accompanying statement will include a repeat of what have become two key phrases:
- “On present indications the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates”
- “the Australian dollar remains above most estimates of its fundamental value”
Expect these to be the trotted out again, either word-for-word or with a barely perceptible change.
There has been plenty of data from Australia since the prior RBA meeting, probably most notably:
- Q3 capex data (and more here) showed a continued decline in expected mining investment (no surprise there), but an encouraging jump in plans for investment in services … which is evidence of ‘transition’ in the economy the RBA have been awaiting
- NAB ‘business conditions’ are at their highest since 2008
- And in the ‘no news is good news’ category, yesterday’s private survey of inflation (a m/m read as opposed to the infrequent q/q we get from the official data) showed a benign result, and that the falling AUD is having only a limited impact on inflation (at least so far).
This is the final RBA meeting for 2014 and marks a calendar year of no policy change (the last change to rates was way back in August 2013).
There is then no meeting in January, the next is on February 2, 2015.
Adam has a post up on some levels for the AUD/USD into the meeting today: Australian dollar braced for RBA decision – orders
And Greg has some technical analysis for the AUD/USD, here: AUDUSD looks above the 100 hour MA before the RBA decision
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Ahead of the RBA meeting today we get building approvals and current account data …. more on these coming up.
