Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 31 October 2017
- The BOJ's GDP & CPI forecasts (from their quarterly report) in a handy table
- Bank of Japan day will continue until morale improves - yes, more to come!
- BOJ keeps policy steady; board newcomer signals desire for easing
- BOJ keeps stimulus unchanged as it trims inflation outlook (recap)
- ANZ on EUR and GBP. See downside for EUR vs. Asia, GBP/Asia maintains range
- More on NZ house purchase restrictions for foreign buyers
- Reuters poll shows Japanese fund managers increase US equity holdings
- NZ PM Ardern: Proposed ban on foreign house purchases to take effect in early 2018
- BOJ announce no change to monetary policy
- USD/JPY: Trading the BOJ - views from 10 major banks
- Heads up for Eurozone data due today - preview of inflation, GDP, and employment
- More on the China PMI misses earlier
- Japan September industrial output - recap
- FX option expiries for Tuesday 31 October 2017
- Nomura on the BOJ: BOJ a 'Lone Dove'; stay long EUR/JPY into year-end
- PBOC sets USD/CNY mid-point today at 6.6397 (vs. Monday at 6.6487)
- China October official manufacturing PMI: 51.6 (expected 52.0)
- China October official non-manufacturing PMI: 54.3 (prior 55.4)
- PBOC checking demand from banks for MLF loans (potential operation on Friday)
- Moody's Forecasts New Zealand's real GDP will grow 3% in 2017, 2.8% in 2018
- M7.0 earthquake in the Pacific - off New Caledonia
- Australia - Private Sector Credit for September +0.3% m/m (expected 0.5%)
- China - Official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs today - previews
- Australia - HIA New Home Sales for September -6.1% m/m (prior was +9.1% m/m)
- UK data - Consumer confidence -10 (expected -10)
- New Zealand ANZ business confidence -10.1 and activity outlook 22.2
- NZ fin min comments earlier - said a lower NZD was natural
- Japan - Industrial production (September, preliminary) -1.1% m/m (expected -1.6%)
- Japan Sept.- Spending -0.3% y/y (exp. 0.6%); Jobless rate 2.8% (exp. 2.8%)
- (Overnight news) Chinese ban on Australian beef exports has been lifted
- SG techs - "EUR/USD: should continue with the down move"
- UK demands more frequent Brexit talks to force progress
- ANZ downgrade their forecasts for EUR and Yen, but look for strength in AUD and NZD
- Australia - weekly ANZ / Roy Morgan Consumer confidence: 113.4 (prior 113.3)
- Australia - CBA / Markit Manufacturing PMI (October) 55.5 (prior 53.8)
- Japan September industrial production data due today - preview
- Brexit - British government extends the Northern Ireland talks deadline
- BOJ decision day - preview (add this to the other previews!)
- NZ data - September building permits -2.3% m/m (prior +10.2%)
- Bank of Japan meeting concludes today - here is when to expect the announcement
- Economic data due from Asia today - Tuesday 31 October 2017
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 31 October 2017
Welcome to the kiwi show ....
New Zealand dollar was a mover today, edging higher in early moves despite lower building permits (a volatile data set, so it wasn't too big an impact on the day) and comments from the new finance minister expressing little concern on the lower NZD (see bullets above). The drift up soon halted (circa 0.6880 topping it), though with poor figures out on the ANZ business survey (activity and confidence down in September - ANZ citing government selection uncertainty). The shift lower set the tone for further losses, compounded by news conference comments from new PM Ardern on the house purchases restrictions to be imposed by early 2018 (again, see bullets above).
For the others ...
- USD/JPY slid from early session highs circa 113.20 to around 112.98 before could not follow through any lower (there are still said to be stop loss sellers under 112.90). It bounced back towards 113.20 and then to a new high for the session on the Bank of Japan announcement ((see bullets above) for the no change decision and forecast revisions), to 113.28. There was no follow through in this direction either, with a firm shove back down under 113.20 to be pretty much unchanged from the late US level.
- EUR/USD tried above 1.1650 in the Tokyo morning but soon lost a little ground, dribbling down as I update to under 1.1635. USD/CHF ticked higher (a very little higher) while Cable topped on the session just over 1.3210 and based just under 1.3195. Cable traders were seen nodding, not following currency movement but rather off to sleep.
- AUD/USD moved back toward 0.7700 but soon lost ground on very soft credit data (the detail was not good either - housing credit stable and business credit much lower - September data .... not grounds for panic yet but certainly raised eyebrows) and then more on softer China PMI data for the month (October).
Still to come this week from the central banks:
November 1 is the Federal Reserve (but the focus is who will be the new Fed Chair)
November 2 is the Bank of England
