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- FOMC Minutes: Majority of Fed members say stronger growth increases likelihood of more hikes
Markit manufacturing PMI for Feb (Prelim) 55.9 vs. 55.5 expected
- White House: New trade deals must help those left behind
- BOE Carney: Currency depreciation is not a good economic strategy
- Fed's Kaplan: Fed should raise rates gradually and patiently this year
- Carney: We are probably at peak point of impact of weaker sterling on inflation
- US Fed's Kashkari says they are not targeting FX to move USD up or down
- BOE's Carney says he doesn't ever commit to a specific path of interest rates
- US Fed's Harker says two 2018 rates hikes likely to be appropriate
- Germany's SPD would back Weidmann as candidate for ECB top job
- UK OBR says 2017-18 public borrowing will undershoot November forecast by "significant margin"
- BofAML see 2018 average Brent crude oil price at USD 64 bbl vs USD 56 prev forecast
- US 10-year yields rise to the highest levels since 2014
Markets:
- Gold down $4 to $1324
- S&P 500 down 14 points to 2701
- US 10-year yields up 5bps to 2.94%
- WTI crude down 65-cents to $61.14
- USD leads, AUD lags
It was all about the Fed Minutes, and you don't hear that too often. The dollar was stronger in Europe but not substantially and then markets went into waiting mode ahead of the release.
The result was a mess. The market initially sold the US dollar and bought stocks but the bond market had other ideas. After a long look, Treasury yields rose to cycle highs and that made bond and dollar traders have second thoughts. After falling 30-40 pips across the board, the US dollar turned around and hit the best levels of the day.
USD/JPY dropped down to 107.25 from 107.70 only to reverse to a session high of 107.90 before offers at the big figure halted the advance.
EUR/USD jumped to 1.2360 on the headlines only to skid back to 1.2285 and close near the lows. It's the fourth day of losses for the pair.
Cable was more resilient but followed the same arc. It rose just above 1.40 from 1.3950 only to tumbled all the way to 1.3922. Unlike the others, it held the European lows but that might just be a side effect of the UK jobs and wages data earlier.
USD/CAD was another interesting case. It's the only major pair to break out of its recent range. The US dollar edged above 1.27 to the best levels since late December.
AUD/USD was especially soft on the day and finished just above 0.7800 but there is still a bit of breathing room before the Feb low of 0.7759.
Looking ahead, it's all about 10-year yields with them rising 6 bps to 2.95% and now just a hiccup away from the 3.00%-3.06% key zone of resistance. It feels like there are going to be some jitters in every market as that unfolds.
