I posted some shorter previews here earlier: New Zealand inflation data for Q3 due soon - preview
A few more now, bolding is mine (mainly on Reserve Bank of New Zealand implications):
ASB:
- We expect the CPI to print at 0.4% qoq in Q3, with annual CPI inflation firming to 1.8%. Rising petrol prices and a stronger near-term outlook for food prices likely explain much of the difference with the RBNZ's +0.2% qoq pick.
- We expect the CPI to confirm that domestic inflation pressures remain subdued outside of one or two pockets.
- While the outlook for economic activity remains constructive and the beneficiary of a number of key supports, evidence of a firming in inflationary pressure is mixed at best. In such an environment, and given a number of downside risks still lurking in the background, there is plenty of sense in the RBNZ holding the pause button for a while longer.
ANZ:
- We expect headline inflation to rise 0.4% q/q in the September quarter. The details of the report are expected to show a broader array of prices increases than in Q2. Some of the more volatile components will make broadly offsetting contributions. Once again, the housing group (+1.0% q/q) will make a positive contribution. There are likely to be a few more signs of life in the broader domestic inflation picture too.
- However, we are mindful not to overplay this at this stage. Tradable prices are expected to be flat q/q (+0.7% y/y). Core inflation measures should be broadly steady. Looking forward, inflation signals still appear mixed. We still retain the view that domestic inflation will rise and broaden in time. Therefore, even with an upside surprise in the Q3 figures, we doubt they will dramatically alter the monetary policy picture.
