November 1st, 2010 16:35:38 GMT

UK Data Forecasts Survey: Oct PMI Services, Producer Prices

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LONDON (MNI) – Below is a poll of analysts’ forecasts for the
October services PMI data, due out at 0928 GMT on Wednesday, November 3
and the October producer price data, due out at 0930 GMT on Friday,
November 5.

[[
Data

! !Oct !Oct !Oct !Oct !Oct !Oct !
! !Producer!Producer!Producer!Producer!Core !Core !
!Oct !Input !Input !Output !Output !Output!Output!
!Services!Prices !Prices !Prices !Prices !Prices!Prices!
!PMI !m/m !y/y !m/m !y/y !m/m !y/y !
!Index !% ch !% ch !% ch !% ch !% ch !% ch !
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Forecasts
Median 52.6 1.0 7.4 0.3 4.4 0.2 4.4
High 53.2 1.8 8.3 0.5 4.7 0.3 4.6
Low 52.0 0.4 6.5 0.2 4.3 0.1 4.3
Previous 52.8 0.7 9.5 0.3 4.4 0.4 4.6
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Number
Responses 14 11 10 11 12 8 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------
ABN Amro 53.0 0.4 6.8 0.3 4.4 n/a 4.3
Action Econ. 52.5 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Barclays Cap 53.0 1.8 8.3 0.5 4.7 0.3 4.5
BNP Paribas 52.3 1.0 n/a n/a 4.3 n/a 4.4
Capital Econ 52.0 1.0 7.4 0.2 4.4 0.2 4.4
Citi 52.5 0.5 6.9 0.3 4.5 0.3 4.6
Commerzbank 53.0 1.0 7.5 0.3 4.4 n/a n/a
Global In. 52.7 n/a n/a 0.2 4.4 0.2 4.4
Investec 53.0 1.0 7.4 0.4 4.5 0.3 4.5
JP Morgan 52.4 0.6 7.1 0.3 4.5 0.2 4.4
Lloyds 52.5 1.2 7.7 0.2 4.4 0.2 4.4
Nomura 52.6 1.5 8.0 0.2 4.4 0.1 4.3
RBS 52.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
UBS 53.2 0.8 6.5 0.2 4.4 n/a n/a
------------------------------------------------------------------------

For further information contact David Robinson 44 207 862 7491
e-mail: drobinson@marketnews.com.

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]

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November 1st, 2010 16:23:33 GMT

1.3995/00 should cap near-term

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EUR/USD is dusting itself off after a good deal of profit-taking following the ISM data. The strong manufacturing report clouds the outlook for the Fed on Wednesday and may prompt a good deal of caution from the FOMC members who are on the fence.

We will still get QE, how much and for how long is the question.

Overnight lows at the 1.3895/00 area should now act as resistance as we rebound in early afternoon trade.

16 Comments

November 1st, 2010 15:28:41 GMT

Risk easing as rates rise

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Commodities have come off the boil in the wake of the ISM data despite signs of life from the US economy.

Why?

Because so much of the bull run in commodities has been based on financial speculation linked to quantitative ease and very little has been related to supply/demand dynamics.

We’ve seen this pattern before (remember July 2008 anyone?). Commodities soared and the dollar slide as the market correctly priced in easing from the Fed as far as the eye could see. What they did not anticipate was a full-scale global financial panic.

Too early to say what the catalyst will be this time (less aggressive Fed?) but the bubble is eerily similar if not quite as large.

EUR/USD has dipped to fresh session lows in the 1.3870s after dipping below 1.3880 support. 1.3705/10 is next support of note.

24 Comments

November 1st, 2010 15:13:33 GMT

USD/JPY touch firmer as US yields back up

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USD/JPY touch firmer, presently at 80.70.  Firmer US yields are lending some much-needed support.  Talk leveraged funds have been buying  in recent trade.

Downside stops now seen gathered through 80.00 and through 79.75.

2 Comments

November 1st, 2010 15:04:49 GMT

US yields rise after data, boosting buck

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EUR/USD is working its way lower, now in the mid 1.3880s as US yields firm after the ISM data. From overnight lows of 2.55%, US 10-yr notes have risen to 2.63%.

The buck is getting a boost across the board as traders expect the Fed to be somewhat less aggressive than prior to the data.

Modest support is at 1.3880 with small stops below that level. 1.3805/10 is next support if 1.3880 gives way.

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November 1st, 2010 14:50:06 GMT

Does this server make my website look fast?

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We’ve changed the way the website is hosted and hopefully you are getting lightning quick page loads…

Can you please indicate in the comments whether there is any change in how the site is loading? Feedback requested please!

35 Comments

November 1st, 2010 14:45:18 GMT

ECB On Sidelines Again In Bond Buying Program

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FRANKFURT (MNI) – The European Central Bank again sat on the
sidelines and failed to purchase any Eurozone bonds on the secondary
market last week, the bank announced Monday.

This comes after the ECB surprised observers by settling no
purchases in the weeks ending October 15 and October 22.

On Tuesday, the ECB will reabsorb E63.5 billion in cumulative
purchases of government bonds via a quick tender to collect one-week
term deposits, the central bank said.

The total is equivalent to the number of bonds purchased through
the Securities Market Program, the formal name of the bank’s
bond-purchase program, and settled as of last Friday, rounded to the
nearest half billion.

“As no SMP transactions were settled last week, it happens that the
rounded settled amount – and the amount for absorption accordingly –
remains unchanged at E63.5 billion” the ECB said.

The operation, to be conducted on Tuesday at 10:30 GMT, will be in
the form of a variable-rate tender with a maximum bid rate of 1.00%, the
bank said.

The liquidity will be held for one week at the bank as a term
deposit. These fixed-term deposits can be used as collateral for the
Eurosystem’s credit operations, the ECB said. The central bank said it
intends to hold another liquidity-absorbing operation next week.

–Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com –

[TOPICS: MGX$$$,M$$FX$,M$X$$$,M$$EC$]

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