Highlights of the Bank of Canada rate decision
Drop in oil prices having a 'material' effect on outlook
Adds 'over time' to guidance about hiking rates to neutral
Says pace of BOC hikes depends on oil and housing outlooks evolve
Housing activity and consumption weaker than expected
Sees increasing signs the US-China trade conflict is hitting global demand and commodity prices
Global expansion is continuing to moderate, US growth expected to slow to more sustainable pace in 2019
Lower CAD will support non-energy exports and employment
Impact of oil slump will be much less than 2014-2016 slump
Consultations with oil and gas companies suggest some are seeking to cut more jobs while trying to make additional efficiency gains
Guidance statement:
"Weighing all of these factors, Governing Council continues to judge that the policy interest rate will need to rise over time into a neutral range to achieve the inflation target. The appropriate pace of rate increases will depend on how the outlook evolves, with a particular focus on developments in oil markets, the Canadian housing market, and global trade policy."
Previously:
"Weighing all of these developments, Governing Council continues to judge that the policy interest rate will need to rise into a neutral range to achieve the inflation target. The appropriate pace of rate increases will depend on a number of factors. These include the effect of higher interest rates on consumption and housing, and global trade policy developments. The persistence of the oil price shock, the evolution of business investment, and the Bank's assessment of the economy's capacity will also factor importantly into our decisions about the future stance of monetary policy."
Poloz has given himself time to wait and see on rate hikes but it still maintaining a hawkish stance. He could have shifted all the way to neutral, so this is a slight positive for the Canadian dollar but was largely priced in.
At the same time, the US dollar is taking a beating right across the board at the moment.