And on he goes

  • There's uncertainty about how employment affects rates
  • Actual inflation is not needed for confidence on 2% target
  • Negative rates aren't on the table right now
  • Negative rate benefits don't outweigh costs in crisis
  • Unlikely Fed would ever buy foreign sov debt
  • People believe that short term rates will rise
  • There's a lot of info to come between now and the year end
  • Latest retail sales were on the soft side
  • Generally the US economy is performing well
  • Inventories and trade are holding the economy back
  • Doesn't know if productivity is being understated

If the Fed are going to raise rates this year they need to do so with an immensely bullish statement on the economy, and I mean go to town on it. If they raise with these sorts of 'maybe's', 'might-do's' and generally uncertain flim flam like Dudley is coming out with, the market and the economy is going to spank their arses