The Reserve Bank of New Zealand OCR is currently 5.25%
ANZ report (in summary):
- We expect the RBNZ will raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) 25bp to 5.50% at its Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) next Wednesday. We see a 20% chance of a 50bp hike and a 5% chance of a pause. Either could backfire by driving down future OCR expectations.
- We are building one more 25bp hike in July into our own OCR forecast, which would take the OCR to 5.75%. The (relatively) happy place to sit and “watch, worry and wait” keeps inching just out of reach.
- Data since the April Review has been mixed but firmly tilted to the upside overall, in our view. Downside: the CPI inflation starting point, inflation expectations, LCI wages, and global growth. Upside: soaring migration (the biggie), an earlier floor in house prices, a tighter labour market starting point, slipping fixed mortgage rates, and fiscal policy (probably also a biggie – we’ll know more on Thursday – but that’s less ‘new news’ versus the April Review than the migration data is).
Yesterday:
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The bank meets next week:
