- Medium-term inflation expectations are elevated in the UK and US
- Uncertainty about inflation strengthens the case for front-loading rate hikes
- High inflation expectations could feed into inflation today
- UK inflation base is broadening and not just in specific sectors
- Output is slowing but PMI data suggests growth is positive and the labor market is strong
- In near-term, tighter US monetary policy tends to boost UK inflation because of weaker pound
Conservatives are pining for a corporate tax cut and other measures for business. I imagine that's going to be a big part of the leadership race. Javid tried to be Chancellor as a fiscal conservative but was replaced with Sunak who didn't mind running a huge deficit. Now, Sunak is the betting favorite and I think that tells you which way the wind is blowing