They may end up being right but make no mistake that they are very much clinging on to hope with the forecasts above. China remains a major curveball on how the inflation outlook will play out this year and supply chain disruptions will unlikely ease all too much before the latter stages of the year.

Sure, inflation pressures may see a peak soon enough. However, as mentioned before, it is important to know that there is a distinction between inflation peaking and staying at high levels, and inflation falling back to 2%. The former seems highly plausible, while the latter probably is going to take quite some time.

ECB and euro