- Expect policy will remain restrictive for some time to get inflation down
- My views on the size and pace of rate hikes will be guided by incoming data
- I expect ongoing increases in rate hikes at coming meetings
- Headline and core inflation have slowed slightly but still unacceptably high
- I expect a 'slightly higher' terminal rate than I had anticipated in Sept
The market is pricing just a 9% chance of 75 bps on Dec 14 and that sounds about right. The Fed blackout starts on Saturday.The terminal top is at 4.91% in May.