Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision for November 2022
Summary Headlines via Reuters:
- Board remains resolute in determination to return inflation to target
- Board expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead
- Size and timing of future rate increases will continue to be determined by data, assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market
- Returning inflation to target requires a more sustainable balance between demand and supply.
- Inflation now forecast to peak at around 8 per cent later this year.
- Board recognises full effect of the increase in interest rates is yet to be felt in mortgage payments
- Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored
- Higher interest rates and higher inflation are putting pressure on the budgets of many households
- Central forecast is for CPI inflation to be around 4¾ per cent over 2023 and a little above 3 per cent over 2024.
- Forecast for GDP growth has been revised down a little, with growth of around 3 per cent expected this year and 1½ per cent in 2023 and 2024.
- Wages growth is continuing to pick up from the low rates of recent years, although it remains lower than in many other advanced economies
- Forecast is for the unemployment rate to remain around its current level over the months ahead,
- Board will continue to pay close attention to both the evolution of labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms
- Labour market remains very tight, with many firms having difficulty hiring workers
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AUD/USD is down on the decision, retracing its gains earlier in the day (not all of them). While 25bp was the expected, and what we got, it should have been probably prudent for the RBA to raise the cash rate target by more given the upside surprise in inflation last week.
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Full text of Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe's statement is here.
RBA hike cycle so far:
