ERG continues to signal that they won't support the government
Sources are telling the BBC and Daily Mail that ERG members are still seen abstaining and are not likely to vote in support of the government in the key vote later. The vote will be on whether to allow May to continue with negotiations to seek changes to the backstop.
If you want to look at it, in short this is basically an indicative vote or a confidence vote towards getting a deal with the European Union. Right now, May is trying to buy time and recent commentary suggests she is trying to secure a last-minute deal in the next EU Summit on 21 March.
But if she can't even get enough support here, that's basically a no-confidence vote towards her Brexit deal and European leaders will be less inclined to try and work something out by then.
The pound may be taking a bit of a hit now, but this could also pave the way for parliament to push forward with the Cooper amendment to delay Article 50. Let's see how things play out later today.
As for cable, price is now running towards support from the 76.4 retracement level and bids around the 1.2800 handle. Break below that and it's basically a slippery slope back towards the January low of 1.2670.