New lows failed. Reversal moves toward 100 hour MA
The EURUSD fell in the the London session and NY morning session. That move took the price to new session lows at 1.0850. The low fell short of the next key target area defined by swing lows/highs going back to November 2015 to March 2016 period. The price fell below that area - mainly in November but again in January for a few days - but since January 7th, the price has traded above that area. The inability to get to that area (yellow area in the chart below) is a disappointment for the bears/sellers. And we saw that disappointment in the rally back higher this afternoon. That rally is taking the price to the 1.0910 area. That level on the daily chart is the swing low from June 2016. Key level to get above if the bulls are to take back more control. We are seeing sellers against the level though. The sellers seem to be leaning.
Looking at the hourly chart below, the rebound higher is also moving closer to the 100 hour MA at the 1.0906 level. Last week, the price moved above the 100 hour MA Tuesday (October 18th) and again on the spike from ECB Draghi's comments on Thursday. That 100 hour MA is lower now (at 1.09063 vs. 1.0987 on Draghi day), but it is very close to that key 1.0910 level on the daily chart. There is also resistance at the 1.0911-15 (see yellow are in the chart below).
So with resistance on the daily chart at 1.0910 and on the hourly at 1.0906 to 1.0915, the area is a key level for traders going forward in the pair. We just moved up to a high of 1.09044 and backed off. Close enough for a first test? It appears that way for now. Stay below the bears are in control. Move above and they lose some of that control.
Key area for the pair going forward and into the new trading day.
