OK, time to update the ‘What to expect at Jackson Hole?’ diary.
Earlier posts:
- Countdown to Jackson Hole … What to expect
- Has everyone given up on Yellen?
- Analysts on what to expect from the Jackson Hole symposium starting Thursday … & FOMC Minutes Wednesday
- CitiFX on what to watch for in the FOMC Minutes and the Jackson Hole symposium
More;
Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, in an interview with MarketWatch:
- “My guess is the speech is more conceptual, high-level,” rather than any specifics on the timing of possible Fed action
- “The signals the Fed have sent on timing of the first rate hike don’t seem to need a great deal of revision”
- “If Yellen wanted to say something new, one possibility would be to discuss how it might require a period of above-target inflation to bring back workers who have withdrawn from the job market”
Vincent Reinhart, a former top Fed staffer and now chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley:
- Says market expectations of the Fed interest-rate moves over the next two years are more dovish than the central bank’s own projections
- “Janet Yellen doesn’t have to push back against market pricing, so she can instead focus on the topic of the day,” which is re-evaluating labor market dynamics
- These will include how much slack remains in the labor market, how much pressure is on wages and how great is the Fed’s responsibility to deal with long-term unemployment
- “Given Janet Yellen leanings, expect her to align herself with those who think the Fed has even more work to do”
