Deutsche Bank’s forecast for the New Zealand CPI, from a client note yesterday:
- “We expect a print of -0.2% qoq / 0.8% yoy
- Looking further ahead we see annual inflation declining to just 0.1% yoy in Q1-2015 given the global slump in oil prices
- As far as the RBNZ is concerned we expect the low inflation prints to keep the kiwi central bank on hold this year
- Our forecasts have two 25bp hikes around the middle of next year – i.e. 2016″
The consensus forecast was for flat at 0.0% q/q.
Nice work from DB.
More on the RBNZ outlook:
- UBS revises call – now see RBNZ leaving rates on hold until December
- JPMorgan see more rate hikes from the RBNZ in 2015
- HSBC reiterates forecasts of RBNZ Rate Rise in Q4 of 2015
- ANZ says the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on hold until late 2016
- More from BNZ on the New Zealand dollar …. where their model suggests ‘fair value’ is
