The Federal Reserve decision is due July 29 at 1800 GMT (2 pm ET)

The July FOMC isn't seen as a 'live' meeting, in the sense that they could hike rates but the market is torn about whether or not the Fed will hike in September.

The OIS market is pricing about a 40% chance of a Fed hike in September while about 80% of economists are forecasting liftoff. July Fed communication could help wipe out that gap.

The current FOMC doesn't like to pre-commit and wants to keep markets guessing so it's highly unlikely there will be any clear signal so market moves will be based on reading between the lines..

One of the problems for the Fed is low inflation. Overall CPI was up just 0.1% year-over-year in June and core CPI was at 1.8% (and below 2% for three years).

The Fed believes some inflation is coming but raising rates is more about getting away from 'emergency' monetary policy and towards something normal.

Does the Fed even need to change the statement?

There is nothing in the June statement that commits the Fed to holding. They saw the economy expanding modestly with moderate household spending and soft business investment. Nothing has changed there.

Economists at Credit Agricole said the Fed may only make cosmetic changes to the communication.

"The July FOMC statement is not expected to be significantly different from the statement
following the June meeting. The first paragraph may see some tinkering around the edges to
reflect the most recent economic data. However, the balance of the statement should see little change," they write today.

Two things to watch:

1) The balance of risks

"The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced."

If the Fed wants to tip a more hawkish bias but not necessarily commit to a September hike, they could emphasize a slight tilt here.

2) Voting

The hawk brigade at the Fed is led by the two female regional presidents -- Mester and George. Both have indicated that they're ready to hike now.

How ready?

A dissent towards hiking rates may be the kind of minor signal