On tightening.

Earlier, BOEs Bailey said:

  • MPC members were split in August 4-4 on whether the minimum conditions were met to raise interest rates

The members are now adding.


  • I think minimum conditions for a rate rise have been met, but not sufficient for one
  • too early to reach conclusion on how much business insolvencies will rise
  • Banks are saying rate of repayment of Covid loans is higher than they expected but days are still early


  • necessary but not sufficient condition for rate rise have been met


  • I do not think guidance conditions for rate rise have been met
  • BOE should look at medium-term inflation pressures, supply is currently temporarily disruptive
  • demand still has some way to go to get back to where it was headed before Covid
  • premature tightening risks causing scarring


  • I think minimum conditions for a rate hike have been met, but need to focus on medium-term