Earlier post is here: BOJ 'Consumption Activity Index' (ICYMI)

  • Fell for the first time in 2 months for March

More now:

  • BoJ's latest consumption activity index ... added to evidence that Japan's economy posted a fifth consecutive quarterly expansion for the first time in over a decade
  • Headline real consumption activity indicator slipped back slightly in March, down 0.1% on the month
  • And adjusting for consumption of foreigners and Japanese overseas consumption, the index declined a touch more than that, with the weakness principally reflecting a drop in the services index (-1.1%M/M)
  • In contrast, however, the durable goods component rose at the fastest monthly pace (6.2%M/M) since the pre-consumption tax hike surge
  • And given the strong start to the year, the overall consumption activity index was up 0.8%Q/Q in Q1, the firmest quarterly pace for three years
  • So, with consumer spending seemingly having started the year on the front foot, and exports having another strong quarter too, we expect GDP growth to have accelerated to around ½%Q/Q in Q1.

(That further commentary via Daiwa, bolding is mine)


ps. the Japanese first estimate of Q1 GDP is due on May 18