The RBNZ rate hike today (and hawkish statement):

RBNZ Governor Orr press conference now:

  • it will be a shallow recession
  • economic activity currently strong
  • spending currently strong
  • inflation expectations must come down
  • wage expectations must also decline

Other officials are speaking also:

  • the neutral interest rate has increased
  • monetary conditions are not as contractionary
  • more time was spent discussing +75 or +100 than was spent discussing +50
  • we are talking about 2 or 3 quarters of shallow recession
RBNZ