A polarised country pushing the GBP lower
One of the sad things about the Brexit process in the UK is that the way it has handled has caused a groundswell in polarisation within the UK. Formerly, people were mainly divided in the UK between the Conservative (blue) and the Labour parties (red). Are you red or you blue sir? At present the presenting question is, 'are you for leaving Europe or are you remaining, sir?' The polarisation does not end there as it also cuts across a deep South and North divide within the UK. For those international readers unfamiliar with the divide it is based upon the wealth of the country which is in the South East of the country (including London). The North of the country, which for a Southerner is North of Watford receives less support and finance than the South. The country is bottom heavy with the South East bringing in, and receiving the lion shares of the nations resources. When I married my wife I laughed to myself as she described herself as a 'midlander'. In my saturated southern world youth (I was born in Wimbledon, South London) the 'midlands' didn't exist. You were either Northern (North of Watford) or Southern (South of Watford). The broad division now is that those within London want to remain in Europe and those outside of London want to leave. It is a difference between North and South, the haves and the have yachts.
So, where does that leave us apart from divided on a single question and split as a nation? What did the recent European elections reveal? Well they answered two questions. Firstly, the leavers ditched the Conservative party. Cast you mind back to 2017 and you will recall that many leavers had previously voted for Nigel Farage's UKIP party before supporting the Conservative party. He is the very articulate leader who can summarise things in handy soundbites, so he is clear and people understood what he wants. Always helpful if you want people to vote for you. Now, at the European elections he won the largest share of 31.6% of the vote in his new Brexit Party. Farage's win ensures that Britain keeps on the path to leave the EU. It also sounds a worrying alarm bell for the conservatives. If they don't deliver Brexit, then they will lose enormous levels of support. In fact, I could see that if handled badly the Conservative party could shrink dramatically at the next general election
Secondly, those who wanted to remain ditched Labour and joined the Lib Dems. I always felt sorry for the Lib Dems as they took a hammering in the recent past after doing a deal with the conservatives which backed fired on them. All change now though as the Lib Dems won 20% of the vote, came in second and replaced Labour as the 'remain' party.
British politics is a mess and neither a referendum or a general election is going to solve it, sadly. The GBP hit a huge drop last month and the chances of a no-deal Brexit have gone up across nearly everyone's books. The Conservatives can't back down (without losing votes), because if they do Farage is there. Also, Ann Widdecombe is there (she joined Farage's Patty for the last campaign) and is she is a British Politician that many people relate to. She is a bit like your nan - safe, sincere, conservative, catholic and won't take any nonsense from any naughty boys - a literally genius pairing with Farage. So could Farage become Prime Minister? Yes, I think he could, if it was a general election solely fought on whether we Leave or Remain. The GBP will remain a sell on rallies in the near term and I see a hard Brexit as more of an option now than ever.
