- Japanese PM Noda to dissolve Diet November 16th, paving way for Japan election
- Japan opposition’s Abe: Will cooperate with PM Noda’s proposal to dissolve parliament on Nov 16
- BOE November inflation report: Cuts near-term growth forecast, raises inflation forecast
- BOE’s King: UK output may shrink a little in Q4 2012
- More King: No one on MPC believes that QE is of itself less effective
- Even more King: Increase in sterling effective exchange rate since mid 2011 is not a welcome development
- IMF’s Lagarde: Expects a real fix, not a quick fix for Greece, including debt sustainability. All of Greece’s partners share same objectives to put Greece programme back on track (we all singing from the same hymn-sheet, honestly)
- IMF’s Dallara: IMF has to play a bigger role in stabilizing Europe
- German FinMin spokeswoman: We are all working to keep Greece in euro zone
- Bundesbank stability review: Eurozone crisis is trhe greatest threat to German financial stability (no shit sherlock)
- Buba’s VP Lautenschlaeger: Risks from EU crisis aren’t over
- Spain’s FinMin: Gov convinced policy path is the right one despite general strike
- Portugal PM: We are fulfilling very tough adjustment process, aim is to recover economy
- Euro zone September industrial production -2.5% m/m, -2.3% y/y. Month on month number demonstrably weaker than Reuter’s median forecast of -1.9%, year on year as expected. However, August data revised upward, to +0.9% m/m, -1.3% y/y from prev +0.6%, -2.9% respectively
- UK October jobless claims +10k, weaker than Reuter’s median forecast of flat. Claimant count rate unchanged at 4.8%, as expected. Ilo unemployment falls 49,000 in 3 months to September. Rate 7.8%, slightly better than Reuter’s median forecast of 7.9% Bit of a mixed report (well I think so)
- EU’s Rehn: Economic indicators point to short-term weakness. But ‘cautiously optimistic’ on 2013, 2014
- US Conference Board fears BRICS miracle over as world faces decade-long slump – AEP at The Telegraph
- Citigroup’s Orszag warns of a huge impediment to Chinese growth – Business Insider
Yen has weakened across the board as Noda paves way for Japanese election. With the opposition LDP leading in the polls Noda looks dead in the water. Opposition LDP’s Shinzo Abe is almost a shoe-in for Japan’s next Prime Minister.l He is likely to lean very heavily on the BOJ to introduce even more aggressive monetary stimulus, hence the yen weakness.
I have to say, Japan seems to change its’ Prime Minister more often than I change my underpants……
USD/JPY up at 80.10 from early 79.50, having been as high as 80.15. Buy stops were tripped through 79.70, 79.90 and 80.00 accelerating the rally. Decent ACB selling was seen in the 79.90/00 area, but it wasn’t enough to cap the rally.
EUR/JPY up at 102.00 from early 101.15, having been as high as 102.06. Technical resistance in form of tenkan line comes in at 102.09. Talk of buy stops gathering through 102.15.
EUR/USD continues to consolidate recent losses. Up marginally at 1.2730 from early 1.2720, having reached the dizzy heights of 1.2757 at one stage.
Cable down marginally at 1.5865 from early 1.5883, having been as low as 1.5855. Slightly lower growth forecast/downbeat comments in latest BOE inflation report and comments from Merve the Sverve (see both above) didn’t really help sterling’s cause. 200 dma well noted at 1.5851.