JP Morgan remain dollar bears and look to sell rallies on USD/CHF

  • USDCHF has refused to break below ... 0.9050, keeping us in the middle of recent ranges.
  • will look to sell into USDCHF rallies back towards 0.92
  • ultimately looking for a break of 0.9000

JPM add on the FOMC meeting today (& where for the euro):

  • market was looking for clarification on AIT together with forward guidance, recent Fed speak has suggested that this will now be unlikely
  • Powell will likely face numerous questions regarding Jackson Hole
  • the SEP will be closely watched for clues, where the forecast horizon rolls to 2023 and will likely show rates on hold through this period
  • While the committee will recognise the improvement in domestic data (especially unemployment), Powell will still paint a dovish, uncertain outcome.
  • Overall, the meeting should be a fairly uneventful one and we remain long euro.