Is this the end, not the beginning
You have to give credit to the bond market. It was right as usual as it sniffed out the major turn at the Fed ahead of any other asset class.
Now it's telling a different story.
US 2-year yields fell as low as 1.69% today in a crescendo of buying. However they turned around to finish up 4 bps to 1.77%. In fact, the entire curve traded higher on a closing basis.
Looking at the chart of 2s, it's still only a blip but the message here might be that if the Fed cuts 2-3 times this year, it could engineer a soft landing and keep the party going. Or it could be a sign that there are some nerves the Fed will cut more than once or twice.
It's still early but it's something to watch for on Friday.
