That's an unexpected turn

Trump exit

Fox New sources say Trump will admit defeat after receiving advice from his advisors.

That would be a big surprise and remove many of the tail risks around the transition. It's bullish for risk trades and this report is sparking a big bid in equity futures, which have now gone positive.

This is one of the things that's hard to believe until it happens, especially after Trump's rant last night. I expected him to never concede.

Here is a separate report on the mood:


The more I think about this, the bigger it is. And if he doesn't concede within a day or two of the race being called, then he likely never will.

It's not just about the transition but if he doesn't concede it likely means that him and his hardcore supporters will dog and undermine Biden for the next four years. If he rides off into the sunset then the whole temperature in Washington goes down.

But this report doesn't make sense to me. Trump isn't the kind of guy to listen to his aides on something like this and it's simply too soon for him to pull a 180 on what he was saying yesterday. There's no way he's completely given up overnight.

Here's Politico's Jonathan Swan:


Based on our poll, a concession would certainly be a surprise: